Despite the US anti-dumping policy on biodiesel in Argentina and Indonesia, the EU has lowered the tariff on biodiesel for Agenyan and Indonesia. The biodiesel has collided with the news, and the output of biodiesel has not increased significantly. As crude oil goes up, there is room for profit in biodiesel production, and market participants expect more supply of crude glycerin. The price of crude glycerin began to loosen, and the price of crude glycerin in the market may continue to decline.
The United States still has anti-dumping against biodiesel in Argentina and Indonesia, but the EU has adjusted the high tax rate for biodiesel in Argentina and Indonesia, and lowered the tariff on biodiesel in Argentina and Indonesia. The long and short news between Argentina and Indonesia is intertwined, but due to the low price of crude oil in the previous period, the operating rate of biodiesel has not increased significantly.
Nowadays, international crude oil is rising at a low level and breaking through the mark of US$60/barrel. Under this background, market participants believe that the production of biodiesel will be profitable in the later period, and the supply of crude glycerin will increase. At the same time, crude glycerin has been curbing demand in China at the price of US$500/ton CIF China. The demand in China is slow and heavy, which has led to an increase in crude glycerin shipment pressure.
The increase in shipment pressure may increase the supply of crude glycerin in the later period, resulting in a high stagflation of crude glycerol and a downward trend. The price of 80% crude glycerin was high, and the Asian crude glycerin market fell by US$10/ton, down 3% from the previous period. The CIF China main port price closed at US$490-505/ton.
Market participants are expected to be short-selling in the later stage of crude glycerol, and they believe that the price of crude glycerin may continue to decline. On the one hand, due to the weakening of the implementation of the anti-dumping policy, it is still unclear whether the output of Argentina and Indonesia in 2018 can be as low as in 2017, but market participants expect that the production of biogas in Argentina and Indonesia will be 2018 compared with 2017. The increase will also drive the increase in crude glycerin production, and the market buying is weakening.
On the other hand, China’s acceptance of high-priced crude glycerol is low. The price of 80% crude glycerin has risen to the level of US$520/ton CIF China. China’s refined glycerin producers have strong risk aversion and the downstream acceptance of high-priced refined glycerin has also weakened. The market has changed from the buyer’s market to the seller’s market. The main contradiction has shifted from supply to downstream demand. The weakening of demand will drag down the price of crude glycerin.
Supply has increased expectations, downstream demand has declined for high price acceptance, and the market has shipping pressure. Zhuo Chuang expects 80% crude glycerin to slow down from a high level in 2018, and the market pressure of refined glycerin will turn into downstream demand.
