crude glycerin market fell again. According to Xiaobian, the current 80% crude glycerin offer in Southeast Asia is basically around $240/ton, while the buying intention is at $220/ton, down 10% from last week’s price of $250-260/ton. The current delivery range is between $200 and $210/ton. As the market price continues to decline, the domestic buyer’s intention to take over is becoming more cautious. At present, the mentality of market participants in the bearish market is still the mainstream.
Recently, international crude oil prices continued to rise, WTI closed at 64.4 US dollars / barrel, Brent closed at 71.1 US dollars / barrel, the export window of biodiesel main producing countries opened and profit is relatively rich, driving its production increase, by-product crude glycerin supply Synchronous growth. As a long-term importer of glycerol, crude glycerin suppliers still focus on the main sales target in China.
However, the market demand for crude glycerin in China is weak compared to the fast-growing supply. In the early stage of the Spring Festival, the crude glycerin market showed a wave of rise. At that time, the domestic glycerin method epichlorohydrin and refined glycerin factories all entered the market to replenish. After the Spring Festival, the price of crude glycerin fell again, and the terminal demand recovery rate was slow. The buyer’s industry mostly used the pre-ordered supply, and the new single replenishment sentiment was weak. In addition, after the middle of March, the crude glycerin market slowed down, and the buyer’s intention to replenish goods became more cautious. The market did not rule out part of the breach of contract. Recently, the price of the Southeast Asian market has also fallen below the price of US$250/ton. It is still necessary to wait and see when it will stop falling. Therefore, the difficulty of domestic crude glycerin transactions has continued to increase.
The price of crude glycerin continues to fall, while the 95% price of domestic refined glycerin is also maintained at 3800-4000 yuan/ton for a certain period of time. Will it continue to fall in the later period? At the moment, the answer is yes, but the space and speed of the decline may not be large.
Although it is said that the low-priced supply of imported water continues to impact the domestic market, domestic glycerin also has certain support. First, the crude glycerin currently consumed by the refined glycerin plant is basically around the level of $290/ton (Southeast Asian source) and $250/ton (South American source). Based on this price, the production cost of the production enterprise is 3700-4100 yuan / ton (estimated by producing 95% glycerol). At present, the price of 95% glycerin produced in East China is basically 3800-4000 yuan/ton, and even lower prices. There is basically no profit margin for production enterprises. Under such circumstances, in addition to the processing of the factory can maintain a certain amount of foundry profits, the refinement of the export-oriented refining enterprises is not high overall. In addition, the recent safety inspection work has affected the start-up of some East China refining enterprises. Under such circumstances, the price of short-term domestic glycerin sources may be weak and stable.
